Hawala, or The Bank That Never Was

Hawala, or The Bank That Never Was


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

I. OVERVIEW

In the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the USA, attention was drawn to the age-old, secretive, and globe-spanning banking system developed in Asia and known as %26quot;Hawala%26quot; (to change, in Arabic). It is based on a short term, discountable, negotiable, promissory note (or bill of exchange) called %26quot;Hundi%26quot;. While not limited to Moslems, it has come to be identified with %26quot;Islamic Banking%26quot;.

Islamic Law (Sharia'a) regulates commerce and finance in the Fiqh Al Mua'malat, (transactions amongst people). Modern Islamic banks are overseen by the Shari'a Supervisory Board of Islamic Banks and Institutions (%26quot;The Shari'a Committee%26quot;).

The Shi'a %26quot;Islamic Laws according to the Fatawa of Ayatullah al Uzama Syed Ali al-Husaini Seestani%26quot; has this to say about Hawala banking:

%26quot;2298. If a debtor directs his creditor to collect his debt from the third person, and the creditor accepts the arrangement, the third person will, on completion of all the conditions to be explained later, become the debtor. Thereafter, the creditor cannot demand his debt from the first debtor.%26quot;

The prophet Muhammad (a cross border trader of goods and commodities by profession) encouraged the free movement of goods and the development of markets. Numerous Moslem scholars railed against hoarding and harmful speculation (market cornering and manipulation known as %26quot;Gharar%26quot;). Moslems were the first to use promissory notes and assignment, or transfer of debts via bills of exchange (%26quot;Hawala%26quot;). Among modern banking instruments, only floating and, therefore, uncertain, interest payments (%26quot;Riba%26quot; and %26quot;Jahala%26quot;), futures contracts, and forfeiting are frowned upon. But agile Moslem traders easily and often circumvent these religious restrictions by creating %26quot;synthetic Murabaha (contracts)%26quot; identical to Western forward and futures contracts. Actually, the only allowed transfer or trading of debts (as distinct from the underlying commodities or goods) is under the Hawala.

%26quot;Hawala%26quot; consists of transferring money (usually across borders and in order to avoid taxes or the need to bribe officials) without physical or electronic transfer of funds. Money changers (%26quot;Hawaladar%26quot;) receive cash in one country, no questions asked. Correspondent hawaladars in another country dispense an identical amount (minus minimal fees and commissions) to a recipient or, less often, to a bank account. E-mail, or letter (%26quot;Hundi%26quot;) carrying couriers are used to convey the necessary information (the amount of money, the date it has to be paid on) between Hawaladars. The sender provides the recipient with code words (or numbers, for instance the serial numbers of currency notes), a digital encrypted message, or agreed signals (like handshakes), to be used to retrieve the money. Big Hawaladars use a chain of middlemen in cities around the globe.

But most Hawaladars are small businesses. Their Hawala activity is a sideline or moonlighting operation. %26quot;Chits%26quot; (verbal agreements) substitute for certain written records. In bigger operations there are human %26quot;memorizers%26quot; who serve as arbiters in case of dispute. The Hawala system requires unbounded trust. Hawaladars are often members of the same family, village, clan, or ethnic group. It is a system older than the West. The ancient Chinese had their own %26quot;Hawala%26quot; - %26quot;fei qian%26quot; (or %26quot;flying money%26quot;). Arab traders used it to avoid being robbed on the Silk Road. Cheating is punished by effective ex-communication and %26quot;loss of honour%26quot; - the equivalent of an economic death sentence. Physical violence is rarer but not unheard of. Violence sometimes also erupts between money recipients and robbers who are after the huge quantities of physical cash sloshing about the system. But these, too, are rare events, as rare as bank robberies. One result of this effective social regulation is that commodity traders in Asia shift hundreds of millions of US dollars per trade based solely on trust and the verbal commitment of their counterparts.

Hawala arrangements are used to avoid customs duties, consumption taxes, and other trade-related levies. Suppliers provide importers with lower prices on their invoices, and get paid the difference via Hawala. Legitimate transactions and tax evasion constitute the bulk of Hawala operations. Modern Hawala networks emerged in the 1960's and 1970's to circumvent official bans on gold imports in Southeast Asia and to facilitate the transfer of hard earned wages of expatriates to their families (%26quot;home remittances%26quot;) and their conversion at rates more favourable (often double) than the government's. Hawala provides a cheap (it costs c. 1% of the amount transferred), efficient, and frictionless alternative to morbid and corrupt domestic financial institutions. It is Western Union without the hi-tech gear and the exorbitant transfer fees.

Unfortunately, these networks have been hijacked and compromised by drug traffickers (mainly in Afganistan and Pakistan), corrupt officials, secret services, money launderers, organized crime, and terrorists. Pakistani Hawala networks alone move up to 5 billion US dollars annually according to estimates by Pakistan's Minister of Finance, Shaukut Aziz. In 1999, Institutional Investor Magazine identified 1100 money brokers in Pakistan and transactions that ran as high as 10 million US dollars apiece. As opposed to stereotypes, most Hawala networks are not controlled by Arabs, but by Indian and Pakistani expatriates and immigrants in the Gulf. The Hawala network in India has been brutally and ruthlessly demolished by Indira Ghandi (during the emergency regime imposed in 1975), but Indian nationals still play a big part in international Hawala networks. Similar networks in Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Bangladesh have also been eradicated.

The OECD's Financial Action Task Force (FATF) says that:

%26quot;Hawala remains a significant method for large numbers of businesses of all sizes and individuals to repatriate funds and purchase gold.... It is favoured because it usually costs less than moving funds through the banking system, it operates 24 hours per day and every day of the year, it is virtually completely reliable, and there is minimal paperwork required.%26quot;

(Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), %26quot;Report on Money Laundering Typologies 1999-2000,%26quot; Financial Action Task Force, FATF-XI, February 3, 2000, at http://www.oecd.org/fatf/pdf/TY2000_en.pdf )

Hawala networks closely feed into Islamic banks throughout the world and to commodity trading in South Asia. There are more than 200 Islamic banks in the USA alone and many thousands in Europe, North and South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states (especially in the free zone of Dubai and in Bahrain), Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other South East Asian countries. By the end of 1998, the overt (read: tip of the iceberg) liabilities of these financial institutions amounted to 148 billion US dollars. They dabbled in equipment leasing, real estate leasing and development, corporate equity, and trade/structured trade and commodities financing (usually in consortia called %26quot;Mudaraba%26quot;).

While previously confined to the Arab peninsula and to south and east Asia, this mode of traditional banking became truly international in the 1970's, following the unprecedented flow of wealth to many Moslem nations due to the oil shocks and the emergence of the Asian tigers. Islamic banks joined forces with corporations, multinationals, and banks in the West to finance oil exploration and drilling, mining, and agribusiness. Many leading law firms in the West (such as Norton Rose, Freshfields, Clyde and Co. and Clifford Chance) have %26quot;Islamic Finance%26quot; teams which are familiar with Islam-compatible commercial contracts.

II. HAWALA AND TERRORISM

Recent anti-terrorist legislation in the US and the UK allows government agencies to regularly supervise and inspect businesses that are suspected of being a front for the ''Hawala'' banking system, makes it a crime to smuggle more than $10,000 in cash across USA borders, and empowers the Treasury secretary (and its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network - FinCEN) to tighten record-keeping and reporting rules for banks and financial institutions based in the USA. A new inter-agency Foreign Terrorist Asset Tracking Center (FTAT) was set up. A 1993 moribund proposed law requiring US-based Halawadar to register and to report suspicious transactions may be revived. These relatively radical measures reflect the belief that the al-Qaida network of Osama bin Laden uses the Hawala system to raise and move funds across national borders. A Hawaladar in Pakistan (Dihab Shill) was identified as the financier in the attacks on the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

But the USA is not the only country to face terrorism financed by Hawala networks.

A few months ago, the Delhi police, the Indian government's Enforcement Directorate (ED), and the Military Intelligence (MI) arrested six Jammu Kashmir Islamic Front (JKIF) terrorists. The arrests led to the exposure of an enormous web of Hawala institutions in Delhi, aided and abetted, some say, by the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence, Pakistan's security services). The Hawala network was used to funnel money to terrorist groups in the disputed Kashmir Valley.

Luckily, the common perception that Hawala financing is paperless is wrong. The transfer of information regarding the funds often leaves digital (though heavily encrypted) trails. Couriers and %26quot;contract memorizers%26quot;, gold dealers, commodity merchants, transporters, and moneylenders can be apprehended and interrogated. Written, physical, letters are still the favourite mode of communication among small and medium Hawaladars, who also invariably resort to extremely detailed single entry bookkeeping. And the sudden appearance and disappearance of funds in bank accounts still have to be explained. Moreover, the sheer scale of the amounts involved entails the collaboration of off shore banks and more established financial institutions in the West. Such flows of funds affect the local money markets in Asia and are instantaneously reflected in interest rates charged to frequent borrowers, such as wholesalers. Spending and consumption patterns change discernibly after such influxes. Most of the money ends up in prime world banks behind flimsy business facades. Hackers in Germany claimed (without providing proof) to have infiltrated Hawala-related bank accounts.

The problem is that banks and financial institutions - and not only in dodgy offshore havens (%26quot;black holes%26quot; in the lingo) - clam up and refuse to divulge information about their clients. Banking is largely a matter of fragile trust between bank and customer and tight secrecy. Bankers are reluctant to undermine either. Banks use mainframe computers which can rarely be hacked through cyberspace and can be compromised only physically in close co-operation with insiders. The shadier the bank - the more formidable its digital defenses. The use of numbered accounts (outlawed in Austria, for instance, only recently) and pseudonyms (still possible in Lichtenstein) complicates matters. Bin Laden's accounts are unlikely to bear his name. He has collaborators.

Hawala networks are often used to launder money, or to evade taxes. Even when employed for legitimate purposes, to diversify the risk involved in the transfer of large sums, Hawaladars apply techniques borrowed from money laundering. Deposits are fragmented and wired to hundreds of banks the world over (%26quot;starburst%26quot;). Sometimes, the money ends up in the account of origin (%26quot;boomerang%26quot;).

Hence the focus on payment clearing and settlement systems. Most countries have only one such system, the repository of data regarding all banking (and most non-banking) transactions in the country. Yet, even this is a partial solution. Most national systems maintain records for 6-12 months, private settlement and clearing systems for even less.

Yet, the crux of the problem is not the Hawala or the Hawaladars. The corrupt and inept governments of Asia are to blame for not regulating their banking systems, for over-regulating everything else, for not fostering competition, for throwing public money at bad debts and at worse borrowers, for over-taxing, for robbing people of their life savings through capital controls, for tearing at the delicate fabric of trust between customer and bank (Pakistan, for instance, froze all foreign exchange accounts two years ago). Perhaps if Asia had reasonably expedient, reasonably priced, reasonably regulated, user-friendly banks - Osama bin Laden would have found it impossible to finance his mischief so invisibly.

The Macedonian Lottery

The Macedonian Lottery


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

Every conflict has its economic moments and dimensions. The current conflict in Macedonia perhaps even more so.

The USA and its Western allies regard Macedonia as a bridge between Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania. Hence the EU's plans for the revival of transport corridors 8 and 10 connecting these countries. If all goes well (and nothing has hitherto), railways will connect Bulgaria to Macedonia and river traffic will flow to Serbia from its southern neighbours. All this is envisioned in the Stability Pact. There are talks of an oil pipeline across Macedonia's territory. A pacified Macedonia is fairly crucial to Serbia's recovery and to the prospects of the whole region to attract FDI.

NATO is afraid of Turkish-Greek clashes in the aftermath of Kosovo and Macedonia. Turkey has increasingly cast itself in its ancient role of %26quot;protector of the Balkan Muslims%26quot;. Greece is the only Orthodox-Christian member of the EU and an old foe of the erstwhile Sick Man of Europe from which it won bloody independence at the beginning of the 19th century. Such clashes are likely to destabilize the southern flank of NATO and block the West's access to Iraq, the Middle East, oil-rich Central Asia, and northern China. This will seriously dent the new %26quot;Pacific Orientation%26quot; of the Bush Administration.

And what about the actual combatants?

Albanians and Macedonian crime gangs (in cahoots with kleptocratic and venal local politicians) regard Macedonia as a vital route for drugs, stolen cars, smuggled cigarettes and soft drinks, illegal immigrants, white slavery, and weapons dealing. These criminal activities far outweigh the GDP of all the adversary states combined. This conflict is about controlling territory and the economic benefits attendant to such control.

Crime and war provide employment, status, regular income, perks, and livelihood to many denizens of Macedonia, Albania, and Bulgaria. They constitute an outlet for entrepreneurship, however perverted. Fighting for the cause and smuggling often means travel abroad (for instance, on fund raising missions), five star accommodation, and a lavish lifestyle. It also translates into powers of patronage and excesses of self-enrichment.

Moreover, in ossified, socially stratified, ethnically polarized, and economically impoverished societies, war and crime engender social mobility. The likes of Hashim Thaci and Ali Ahmeti often start as rebels and end as part of the cosseted establishment. Many a criminal dabble in politics and business.

Hence the tenacity of both phenomena. Hence the bleak and pessimistic outlook for this region. The %26quot;formal%26quot; economies simply cannot compete. Jobs are not created, the educated are often bitterly idle, salaries are minuscule if paid at all, the future is past. Crime and politics (one and the same in the Balkan) are alluring alternatives.

Moreover, the NLA itself is not a monolithic entity. It is more like an umbrella organization with serious and fracturing differences of opinion regarding the ultimate goals the insurrection and the means to obtain these goals. Roughly, it is made up of one third veteran Kosovo fighters, some of them professional soldiers, who also fought in Croatia, or in the Foreign Legion. These people are bitter and disgruntled by what they see as the betrayal of the West in refusing to guarantee an independent Kosovo and the failure of the current Kosovar leadership to integrate them economically into the emerging polity there. Their motives are part emotional and part pecuniary. Another third is made of unemployed, young Albanians, mainly from Macedonia itself. Their fighting is self-interested. They get a monthly salary and perks and, lacking education and skills, they don't have much of a choice outside the killing fields. The rest are diehard, hardcore, idealists who either fervently espouse a Great Albania, or would like to take over Western Macedonian in a %26quot;constitutional coup%26quot; which will grant them their own police force, municipalities, institutions, universities, budgets, and semi-political structures. The NLA itself is not directly involved in criminal activities, though a few of its members are. But the money that finances it (from the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Germany, and the USA) is tainted by drug dealing, white slavery, illegal immigration, and the smuggling of everything illicit, from cigarettes to stolen cars, to weapons. In this they collaborate with politicians and criminals in Macedonia - both Albanian and Macedonian.

Being a politician in the Balkan is an extremely lucrative proposition. Both Albanian and Macedonian politicians will abandon the peace process if they believe it leads to electoral ruin. Given the current atmosphere, it doesn't pay to be a pacifist. Virulent nationalism is a guaranteed vote winner. The re-election ticket requires xenophobia, ethnic exclusivity, and radicalism. Here lies the future.

The European Bank for the Retardation of Development

The European Bank for the Retardation of Development


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

In typical bureaucratese, the pensive EBRD analyst ventures with the appearance of compunction: %26quot;A number of projects have fallen short of acceptable standards (notice the passive, exculpating voice - SV) and have put the reputation of the bank at risk%26quot;. If so, very little was risked. The outlandish lavishness of its City headquarters, the apotheosis of the inevitable narcissism of its first French Chairman (sliding marble slabs, motion sensitive lighting and designer furniture) - is, at this stage, its only tangible achievement. In the territories of its constituencies and shareholders it is known equally for its logy pomposity, the irrelevance of its projects, its lack of perspicacity and its Kafkaesque procedures. And where the IMF sometimes indulges in oblique malice and corrupt opaqueness, the EBRD wallows merely in avuncular inefficacy. Both are havens of insouciant third rate economists and bankers beyond rating.

Established in 1991, %26quot;it exists to foster the transition towards open market oriented economies and to promote private and entrepreneurial initiative in the countries of central and eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) committed to and applying the principles of multiparty democracy, pluralism and market economics. The EBRD seeks to help its 26 countries of operations to implement structural and sectoral economic reforms, promoting competition, privatization and entrepreneurship, taking into account the particular needs of countries at different stages of transition. Through its investments it promotes private sector activity, the strengthening of financial institutions and legal systems, and the development of the infrastructure needed to support the private sector. The Bank applies sound banking and investment principles in all of its operations. In fulfilling its role as a catalyst of change, the Bank encourages co-financing and foreign direct investment from the private and public sectors, helps to mobilize domestic capital, and provides technical co-operation in relevant areas. It works in close co-operation with international financial institutions and other international and national organizations. In all of its activities, the Bank promotes environmentally sound and sustainable development.%26quot;

Grandiloquence aside, the EBRD was supposed to foster the formation of the private sector in the revenant wreckage of Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkan, Russia and the New Independent States. This it was mandated to do by providing finance where there was none (%26quot;bridging the gaps in the post communist financial system%26quot; to quote %26quot;The Economist%26quot;). Put more intelligibly, it was NOT supposed to transform itself into a long-term investment portfolio with equity holdings in most blue-chips in the region. Yet, this is precisely what it ended up becoming. It avoided project financing like the plague and met the burgeoning capital needs of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) grudgingly. And it refuses to divest itself of stakes in the best run and most efficiently managed firms from Russia to the Czech Republic. In a way, it competes head on with other investors and commercial banks - often crowding them out with its subsidized financing.

One of its main mistakes, in a depressingly impressive salmagundi, is that it channelled precious resources to this budding sector (SMEs), the dynamo of every economy, through the domestic, decrepit, venal and politically manhandled banking system. The inevitable result was a colossal waste of resources. The money was allocated to sycophantic cronies and sinecured relatives (often one and the same) and to gigantic, state-owned or state-favoured loss makers. Most of it lay idle and yielded to its hosts a hefty income in arbitrage and speculation. As banks went bankrupt, they wiped whole portfolios of EBRD SME funds, theoretically guaranteed by even more bankrupt states.

Thus, the only segments of the private sector to benefit handsomely from the EBRD were lawyers and accountants involved in the umpteen lawsuits the EBRD is mired in. It is a growth industry in %26quot;countries%26quot; such as Russia. This is the melancholy outcome of indiscriminate, politically-motivated lending and of a lackadaisical performance as both lenders and shareholders. In the spirit of its first chairman, the suave and titivated Attali, the bank is in a constant road show, mortified by the possibility of its dissolution by reason of irrelevance. It aims to impress the West with its grandiose projects, mega investments, fast returns and acquiescence. In thus behaving, it is engaged in a perditionable perfidy of its fiduciary obligations. It lends to criminal managers, winking at their off-shore shenanigans and turning a blind eye to the scapegrace slaughter of minority shareholders. It throws good money after bad, cosies up to oligarchs near and far and engages in creative accounting. Instead of Westernizing the Easterners - it has been Easternized by them. Its sedentary though peregrinating employees are more adept at wining and at dining the high and mighty and at haughtily maundering in the odd, tangential, seminar - than at managing a banking institution or looking after the interests of their nominal shareholders with the tutelary solicitude expected of a bank.

Consider two examples:

MACEDONIA

The nascent private sector is nowhere to be found in the list of projects the EBRD so sagely chose to falter into here. The Electricity and Telecoms monopolies are prime beneficiaries as is the airport. The EBRD is also a passive shareholder in both big universal banks - until recently, conduits of state mismanagement. The SME and Trade Facilitation credit lines were conveniently divvied up among five domestic banks (one went belly up, the managers of two are under criminal investigation and one was sold to a Greek state bank). Despite vigorous protestations to the contrary, none of this money reached its proclaimed entrepreneurial targets. Two loans were made to giant local firms - the natural preserve of commercial lenders and equity investors the world over. The EBRD contributed nothing to the emergence of a management culture, to the development of proper corporate governance, to the safeguarding of property rights and the protection of minority shareholders here. Instead, it colluded in the perpetuation of monopolies, shoddy and shady banking practices, the pertinacious robbery titled %26quot;privatization%26quot; and the pretence of funding languishing private sector enterprises.

RUSSIA

Its 2 billion US dollars portfolio all but wiped out in the August 1998 financial crisis, the EBRD has now returned with 700 million new Euros to be - conservatively but not more safely - lent in major energy and telecom behemoths.

The historic, pre-1998, portfolio appears impressive. Almost 11 billion US dollars were generated by the EBRD's less than 4. The bottom line reads 94 projects. Yet, when one neutralizes the infrastructural ones (including the gas and energy sector) - one is left with less than 50% of the amount. Add %26quot;infrastructure-like%26quot; projects (water transportation and the like) - and less than 30% of the portfolio went to what can be called proper %26quot;private sector%26quot;. Moreover, even these investments and credits were geared towards traditional and smokestack industries: mining, food processing, pipelines, rubber and such. Not an entrepreneur in sight. And the EBRD's meagre loan-loss provisions and reserves cast serious doubts regarding the mental state of both its directors and its auditors.

To varying degrees, these two countries are typical. Development banks, like industrial policy, import substitution and poverty reduction, have gone in and out of multilateral fashion several times in the last few decades. But there is a consensus regarding some minimum aims of such bureaucracy-laden establishments - and the EBRD achieves none. It does not encourage entrepreneurship. It does not improve corporate governance. It does not enhance property rights. It does not allocate economic resources efficiently. It competes directly with other - more desirable - financing alternatives. It is not equipped to monitor its vast and inert portfolio. By implication it collaborates in graft, tax evasion and worse. It is a waste of scarce resources badly needed elsewhere. It should be administered a coup de grace. And its marbled abode - so out of touch with the realities of its clients and its balance sheet - should be sold to someone more up to the task. A bank, for instance.

The Myth of the Earnings Yield

The Myth of the Earnings Yield


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

Abstract

A very slim minority of firms distribute dividends. This truism has revolutionary implications. In the absence of dividends, the foundation of most - if not all - of the financial theories we employ in order to determine the value of shares, is falsified. These theories rely on a few implicit and explicit assumptions:

• That the (fundamental) %26quot;value%26quot; of a share is closely correlated (or even equal to) its market (stock exchange or transaction) price;
  
  

• That price movements (and volatility) are mostly random, though correlated to the (fundamental) %26quot;value%26quot; of the share (will always converge to that %26quot;value%26quot; in the long term);
  
  

• That this fundamental %26quot;value%26quot; responds to and reflects new information efficiently (old information is fully incorporated in it).
  
  

Investors are supposed to discount the stream of all future income from the share (using one of a myriad of possible rates - all hotly disputed). Only dividends constitute meaningful income and since few companies engage in the distribution of dividends, theoreticians were forced to deal with %26quot;expected%26quot; dividends rather than %26quot;paid out%26quot; ones. The best gauge of expected dividends is earnings. The higher the earnings - the more likely and the higher the dividends. Even retained earnings can be regarded as deferred dividends. Retained earnings are re-invested, the investments generate earnings and, again, the likelihood and expected size of the dividends increase. Thus, earnings - though not yet distributed - were misleadingly translated to a rate of return, a yield - using the earnings yield and other measures. It is as though these earnings WERE distributed and created a RETURN - in other words, an income - to the investor.

The reason for the perpetuation of this misnomer is that, according to all current theories of finance, in the absence of dividends - shares are worthless. If an investor is never likely to receive income from his holdings - then his holdings are worthless. Capital gains - the other form of income from shareholding - is also driven by earnings but it does not feature in financial equations.

Yet, these theories and equations stand in stark contrast to market realities.

People do not buy shares because they expect to receive a stream of future income in the form of dividends. Everyone knows that dividends are fast becoming a thing of the past. Rather, investors buy shares because they hope to sell them to other investors later at a higher price. In other words, investors do expect to realize income from their shareholdings but in the form of capital gains. The price of a share reflects its discounted expected capital gains (the discount rate being its volatility) - NOT its discounted future stream of income. The volatility of a share (and the distribution of its prices), in turn, are a measure of expectations regarding the availability of willing and able buyers (investors). Thus, the expected capital gains are comprised of a fundamental element (the expected discounted earnings) adjusted for volatility (the latter being a measure of expectations regarding the distribution of availability of willing and able buyers per given price range). Earnings come into the picture merely as a yardstick, a calibrator, a benchmark figure. Capital gains are created when the value of the firm whose shares are traded increases. Such an increase is more often than not correlated with the future stream of income to the FIRM (NOT to the shareholder!!!). This strong correlation is what binds earnings and capital gains together. It is a correlation - which might indicate causation and yet might not. But, in any case, that earnings are a good proxy to capital gains is not disputable.

And this is why investors are obsessed by earnings figures. Not because higher earnings mean higher dividends now or at any point in the future. But because earnings are an excellent predictor of the future value of the firm and, thus, of expected capital gains. Put more plainly: the higher the earnings, the higher the market valuation of the firm, the bigger the willingness of investors to purchase the shares at a higher price, the higher the capital gains. Again, this may not be a causal chain but the correlation is strong.

This is a philosophical shift from %26quot;rational%26quot; measures (such as fundamental analysis of future income) to %26quot;irrational%26quot; ones (the future value of share-ownership to various types of investors). It is a transition from an efficient market (all new information is immediately available to all rational investors and is incorporated in the price of the share instantaneously) to an inefficient one (the most important information is forever lacking or missing altogether: how many investors wish to buy the share at a given price at a given moment).

An income driven market is %26quot;open%26quot; in the sense that it depends on newly acquired information and reacts to it efficiently (it is highly liquid). But it is also %26quot;closed%26quot; because it is a zero sum game, even in the absence of mechanisms for selling it short. One investor's gain is another's loss and all investors are always hunting for bargains (because what is a bargain can be evaluated %26quot;objectively%26quot; and independent of the state of mind of the players). The distribution of gains and losses is pretty even. The general price level amplitudes around an anchor.

A capital gains driven market is %26quot;open%26quot; in the sense that it depends on new streams of capital (on new investors). As long as new money keeps pouring in, capital gains expectations will be maintained and realized. But the amount of such money is finite and, in this sense, the market is %26quot;closed%26quot;. Upon the exhaustion of available sources of funding, the bubble tends to burst and the general price level implodes, without a floor. This is more commonly described as a %26quot;pyramid scheme%26quot; or, more politely, an %26quot;asset bubble%26quot;. This is why portfolio models (CAPM and others) are unlikely to work. Diversification is useless when shares and markets move in tandem (contagion) and they move in tandem because they are all influenced by one critical factor - and only by one factor - the availability of future buyers at given prices.

Lessons in Transition

Lessons in Transition


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

Q: What have been the most successful approaches to attracting direct foreign investments: offering prospective investors tax breaks and similar benefits, or improving the overall investment climate of the country?

Empirical research has demonstrated that investors are not lured by tax breaks and monetary or fiscal investment incentives. They will take advantage of existing schemes (and ask for more, pitting one country against another). But these will never be the determining factors in their decision making. They are much more likely to be swayed by the level of protection of property rights, degree of corruption, transparency, state of the physical infrastructure, education and knowledge of foreign languages and %26quot;mission critical skills%26quot;, geographical position and proximity to markets and culture and mentality.

Q: What have been successful techniques for countries to improve their previously negative investment image?

The politicians of the country need to be seen to be transparently, non-corruptly encouraging business, liberalizing and protecting the property rights of investors. One real, transparent (for instance through international tender) privatization; one case where the government supported a foreigner against a local; one politician severely punished for corruption and nepotism; one fearless news medium – change a country's image.

Q: Should there be restrictions on repatriation of foreign investment capital (such restrictions could prevent an investment panic, but at the same time they negatively affect investor's confidence)?

Short term and long term capital flows are two disparate phenomena with very little in common. The former is speculative and technical in nature and has very little to do with fundamental realities. The latter is investment oriented and committed to the increasing of the welfare and wealth of its new domicile. It is, therefore, wrong to talk about %26quot;global capital flows%26quot;. There are investments (including even long term portfolio investments and venture capital) – and there is speculative, %26quot;hot%26quot; money. While %26quot;hot money%26quot; is very useful as a lubricant on the wheels of liquid capital markets in rich countries – it can be destructive in less liquid, immature economies or in economies in transition.

The two phenomena should be accorded a different treatment. While long term capital flows should be completely liberalized, encouraged and welcomed – the short term, %26quot;hot money%26quot; type should be controlled and even discouraged. The introduction of fiscally-oriented capital controls (as Chile has implemented) is one possibility. The less attractive Malaysian model springs to mind. It is less attractive because it penalizes both the short term and the long term financial players. But it is clear that an important and integral part of the new International Financial Architecture MUST be the control of speculative money in pursuit of ever higher yields. There is nothing inherently wrong with high yields – but the capital markets provide yields connected to economic depression and to price collapses through the mechanism of short selling and through the usage of certain derivatives. This aspect of things must be neutered or at least countered.

Q: What approach has been most useful in best serving the needs of small businesses: through private business support firms, business associations, or by government agencies?

It depends where. In Israel (until the beginning of the 90s), South Korea and Japan (until 1997) – the state provided the necessary direction and support. In the USA – the private sector invented its own enormously successful support structures (such as venture capital funds). The right approach depends on the characteristics of the country in question: how entrepreneurial are its citizens, how accessible are credits and microcredits to SMEs, how benign are the bankruptcy laws (which always reflect a social ethos), how good is its physical infrastructure, how educated are its citizens and so on.

Q: How might collective action problems among numerous and dispersed small and medium entrepreneurs best be dealt with?

It is a strange question to ask in the age of cross-Atlantic transportation, telecommunication and computer networks (such as the Internet). Geographical dispersion is absolutely irrelevant. The problem is in the diverging self-interests of the various players. The more numerous they are, the more niche-orientated, the smaller – the lesser the common denominator. A proof of this fragmentation is the declining power of cartels – trade unions, on the one hand and business trusts, monopolies and cartels, on the other hand. The question is not whether this can be overcome but whether it SHOULD be overcome. Such diversity of interests is the lifeblood of the modern market economy which is based on conflicts and disagreements as much as it is based on the ability to ultimately compromise and reach a consensus.

What needs to be done centrally is public relations and education. People, politicians, big corporations need to be taught the value and advantages of small business, of entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship. And new ways to support this sector need to be constantly devised.

Q: How might access of small business to start-up capital and other resources best be facilitated?

The traditional banks all over the world failed at maintaining the balancing act between risk and reward. The result was a mega shift to the capital markets. Stock exchanges for trading the shares of small and technology companies sprang all over the world (NASDAQ in the USA, the former USM in London, the Neuemarkt in Germany and so on). Investment and venture capital funds became the second most important source quantitatively. They not only funded budding entrepreneurs but also coached them and saw them through the excruciating and dangerous research and development phases.

But these are rich world solutions.

An important development is the invention of %26quot;third world solutions%26quot; such as microcredits granted to the agrarian or textile sectors, mainly to women and which involve the whole community.

Q: Women start one-third of new businesses in the region: now can this contribution to economic growth be further stimulated?

By providing them with the conditions to work and exercise their entrepreneurial skills. By establishing day care centres for their children. By providing microcredits (women have proven to be inordinately reliable borrowers). By giving them tax credits. By allowing or encouraging flexitime or part time work or work from home. By recognizing the home as the domicile of business (especially through the appropriate tax laws). By equalizing their legal rights and their pay. By protecting them from sexual or gender harassment.

Financial Crises, Global Capital Flows and the International Financial Architecture

Financial Crises, Global Capital Flows and the International Financial Architecture


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

The recent upheavals in the world financial markets were quelled by the immediate intervention of both international financial institutions such as the IMF and of domestic ones in the developed countries, such as the Federal Reserve in the USA. The danger seems to have passed, though recent tremors in South Korea, Brazil and Taiwan do not augur well. We may face yet another crisis of the same or a larger magnitude momentarily.

What are the lessons that we can derive from the last crisis to avoid the next?

The first lesson, it would seem, is that short term and long term capital flows are two disparate phenomena with very little in common. The former is speculative and technical in nature and has very little to do with fundamental realities. The latter is investment oriented and committed to the increasing of the welfare and wealth of its new domicile. It is, therefore, wrong to talk about %26quot;global capital flows%26quot;. There are investments (including even long term portfolio investments and venture capital) – and there is speculative, %26quot;hot%26quot; money. While %26quot;hot money%26quot; is very useful as a lubricant on the wheels of liquid capital markets in rich countries – it can be destructive in less liquid, immature economies or in economies in transition.

The two phenomena should be accorded a different treatment. While long term capital flows should be completely liberalized, encouraged and welcomed – the short term, %26quot;hot money%26quot; type should be controlled and even discouraged. The introduction of fiscally-oriented capital controls (as Chile has implemented) is one possibility. The less attractive Malaysian model springs to mind. It is less attractive because it penalizes both the short term and the long term financial players. But it is clear that an important and integral part of the new International Financial Architecture MUST be the control of speculative money in pursuit of ever higher yields. There is nothing inherently wrong with high yields – but the capital markets provide yields connected to economic depression and to price collapses through the mechanism of short selling and through the usage of certain derivatives. This aspect of things must be neutered or at least countered.

The second lesson is the important role that central banks and other financial authorities play in the precipitation of financial crises – or in their prolongation. Financial bubbles and asset price inflation are the result of euphoric and irrational exuberance – said the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the legendary Mr. Greenspun and who can dispute this? But the question that was delicately side-stepped was: WHO is responsible for financial bubbles? Expansive monetary policies, well timed signals in the interest rates markets, liquidity injections, currency interventions, international salvage operations – are all co-ordinated by central banks and by other central or international institutions. Official INACTION is as conducive to the inflation of financial bubbles as is official ACTION. By refusing to restructure the banking system, to introduce appropriate bankruptcy procedures, corporate transparency and good corporate governance, by engaging in protectionism and isolationism, by avoiding the implementation of anti competition legislation – many countries have fostered the vacuum within which financial crises breed.

The third lesson is that international financial institutions can be of some help – when not driven by political or geopolitical considerations and when not married to a dogma. Unfortunately, these are the rare cases. Most IFIs – notably the IMF and, to a lesser extent, the World Bank – are both politicized and doctrinaire. It is only lately and following the recent mega-crisis in Asia, that IFIs began to %26quot;reinvent%26quot; themselves, their doctrines and their recipes. This added conceptual and theoretical flexibility led to better results. It is always better to tailor a solution to the needs of the client. Perhaps this should be the biggest evolutionary step:

That IFIs will cease to regard the countries and governments within their remit as inefficient and corrupt beggars, in constant need of financial infusions. Rather they should regard these countries as CLIENTS, customers in need of service. After all, this, exactly, is the essence of the free market – and it is from IFIs that such countries should learn the ways of the free market.

In broad outline, there are two types of emerging solutions. One type is market oriented – and the other, interventionist. The first type calls for free markets, specially designed financial instruments (see the example of the Brady bonds) and a global %26quot;laissez faire%26quot; environment to solve the issue of financial crises. The second approach regards the free markets as the SOURCE of the problem, rather than its solution. It calls for domestic and where necessary international intervention and assistance in resolving financial crises.

Both approaches have their merits and both should be applied in varying combinations on a case by case basis.

Indeed, this is the greatest lesson of all:

There are NO magic bullets, final solutions, right ways and only recipes. This is a a trial and error process and in war one should not limit one's arsenal. Let us employ all the weapons at our disposal to achieve the best results for everyone involved.

Economic Free Zones in Macedonia

Economic Free Zones in Macedonia


by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

Question: Dr. Vaknin – is it true that you are the father of the Law of Free Economic Zones?

Answer: I participated in the dedicated and professional team, from many ministries and state organs, which prepared the law. The initiative – in collaboration with the delegation of the government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) – belongs to Dr. Milijana Danevska, the Minister of Development. Most of the work was done by her advisor, Ms. Zorica Doncevska long before I arrived on the scene. I did suggest a few amendments, some of which were accepted.

Question: What is a free zone?

Answer: There is an important distinction which the media is not aware of between FREE ZONES and FREE ZONE SITES.

To quote from the law:

%26quot;A free zone site represents a detached, enclosed and marked area of the territory of the Republic of Macedonia on which commercial activities are conducted under conditions prescribed by this and other laws and on which custom and other tax incentives determined by this law shall be applicable.%26quot;

%26quot;A Free Zone shall be established as trade associations conducting economic, technical, administrative, expert and other activities supporting the operations in the free zone sites.%26quot;

Question: Do other countries have free zones?

Answer: Dozens of other countries have free trade zones, free industrial zones, free industrial or technology parks, customs free zones, free transhipment zones and many other types of free economic zones. Our law allows for all these types of activities to exist. It is very broad and flexible and one of the best and most complete laws I have seen. As opposed to popular opinion, free zones exist even in rich countries such as the United Kingdom or the USA (although they are not called %26quot;free zones%26quot; there). It is true, though, that to poor and middle income countries, such as Macedonia, a free zone can be an important tool for economic development.

Question: Why do you use such cautious language, %26quot;can be%26quot;?

Answer: Because it is never enough to have a law. What matters is how it is implemented. There are free zones in countries as diverse as the Philippines, Tunisia, Costa Rica and Taiwan. In some places they are the engine of the economic locomotive, in other they are a drag on the local economy.

Question: So, the critics are right, free zones can be a bad thing?

Answer: The critics are wrong. Anything that has the potential of generating investments, encouraging entrepreneurship, creating new working places, enhancing exports and improving the balance of payments – should be implemented without delay. Free zones are potentially powerful economic engines of exports and growth and employment. Would it have been wise of us to ignore their potential?

Question: Can't free zones be used as tax havens, for smuggling or other criminal activities?

Answer: If the free zones are run by criminals AND (this is a cumulative condition) the authorities are inefficient or corrupt – of course it can. But our law is very strict on WHO will own and run the free zones. It is also very explicit about the precise functions and procedures to be performed by the authorities intended to ensure that the free zones are not abused. Free zones will be established only where and when they can increase employment, bring new technology and know how to the country and increase exports. An average of 65% of the goods and services produced in the zones MUST be exported or the developer might lose its licence. Additionally the law says that the businesses operating in the zone must use local manpower and prefer domestic suppliers where economically feasible.

Question: What is the Free Zones Directorate?

Answer: This is my favourite part of the law, the one I am most proud of. We introduced, for the first time in Macedonia, not only in theory, but in practice, the concept of %26quot;One Stop Shop%26quot;. All the business entities in the free zone will have one address to go to. They will no longer have to run for weeks between ministries, authorities, agencies and state organs. They will get everything they need from one central authority, from one address. All the relevant ministries and state organs will be represented there, with full authority to render all the services required by the free zones users. This is unprecedented. The ministers are worthy of the highest praise for being willing to participate in such an innovative approach. The law says:

%26quot;The Free Zone Directorate shall be responsible for… granting approvals of requests of developers for the establishment of free zones; provision of supervision and management of free zone sites through its branches; coordination of the activities of state organs and authorities and public enterprises within the free zone sites; planning and developing free zone sites and making sites available to developers; public relations, advertising and promotion of free zone sites; attracting developers and users to the free zone sites; registration of businesses and structures within the free zone sites; coordination of issuance of licenses, permits and approvals where and as needed, of product quality control and the issuance of certificates of origin by the members of the Directorate; Inspection of installations and working conditions within the free zone sites; convening a labour relations committee in which all labour disputes between employees and employers in the free zone sites are to be settled; the coordination of the issuance of export and import licenses; coordination of the prevention of smuggling; coordination of the safety and security of people and property in the free zones sites; Provision and maintenance of all public goods and utilities … conducting other activities associated with the functioning of free zone sites and especially the implementation of the %26quot;one stop shop%26quot; concept of management of the free zone sites; raising the required start-up capital.%26quot;

Question: So, from now on, any trade association can open a free zone?

Answer: Absolutely not. The developer must satisfy very strict and rigorous criteria to qualify. The law demands that it %26quot;…provide written proof of their financial ability matching their financial obligations under this Law either in the form of a performance bond or a bank document substantiating the availability of unencumbered funds in their account or audited financial statements%26quot; and %26quot;demonstrate previous experience and track record in trading or in the operating of free zone sites%26quot;.

The developers, in their application, must provide an environmental impact assessment, a marketing plan and a business plan or a feasibility study.

And the developer loses his approval if it enters bankruptcy procedures, if it is proven that he provided false material information in his request, If he failed to build and operate the free zone site in accordance with the stipulations of this Law or failed to submit one annual report.

Additionally, the developer pays 0.3% of the total turnover of the business entities in his zones.

I think these are relatively reasonable terms.

It will also not be that easy for the developer to do in the zone something other than what he undertook to do. Almost every substantial change requires a new approval. The law states: %26quot;Each change of a free zone shall be subject to the procedure for the establishment of a free zone … %26quot;Change%26quot; in this law shall mean: enlargement of the approved free zone site area; change in location of the free zone site; new activities are to be conducted in the approved free zone; each change in the composition of the developers (addition of new developer, change of corporate structure, take over, merger, acquisition, etc.) of the free zone; change of the period for existence of the free zone.

Question: Still, inside the zone – the developer is king. Actually, it is a kind of ex-territorial area, like an embassy?

Answer: I want to say it once and for all (because I heard this argument before):

A free zone is NOT an ex-territorial area. It is an integral and inseparable part of Macedonia. All the domestic laws of Macedonia apply there. It simply has different rates of customs and taxes. The over-riding status of the Macedonian domestic law is stated numerous times throughout the law. One example:

Article 20 says: %26quot;Free zone developers shall enact rules or pose conditions (hereunder referred to as %26quot;developer rules%26quot;) under which their free zone site will be operated and activities conducted, regulate internal order and prescribe separate measures for protection of the working and living conditions and the environment. BUT…

The developer rules shall not contradict all the applicable laws of the Republic of Macedonia, including their by-laws and regulations and all the international obligations of the Republic of Macedonia…. AND The developer rules shall be announced in the Official Gazette of the Republic of Macedonia after the approval given by the Free zone Directorate.%26quot;

Question: Aren't we offering too much by way of tax incentives? Aren't the revenues lost by the state worth more than the free zone will ever generate?

Answer: It is a very narrow point of view. Tax revenues are not the only thing we should consider. What about unemployment, technology transfers, export enhancement? These are invaluable in that they can revive the economy.

Compared to other free zones in other countries, we are offering mid-way concessions. We are by no means too generous. Additionally, to qualify to receive the tax incentives, the user must satisfy certain annual export quotas. It must prove that it generated NEW activities, not merely transferred activities from %26quot;mainland%26quot; Macedonia to the free zone %26quot;island%26quot;. It must show that it is not involved in criminal activities or bankruptcy procedures and so on. Only then is it eligible to enjoy the tax incentives.

Question: Which are?

Answer: The law says it best:

%26quot;Free zone users meeting the terms as in article 21 of this law shall be exempted from:

• Sales tax on products within the free zone site except for those products sold for final consumption within the free zone;
  
  

• Sales tax and VAT on goods imported into the free zone site for production purposes and for performing other approved activities in the free zone;
  
  

• Sales tax on services provided in the free zone immediately linked with export of goods and services;
  
  

• Profit tax for a period of ten (10) years from the day of commencement of activities in the free zone;
  
  

• Property tax for a period of ten (10) years from the day of commencement of activities in the free zone;
  
  

• All taxes otherwise applicable to any transfer of property or rights thereof between developers and users within the free zone.
  
  

Free zone users reinvesting in the capital assets of the free zone site shall be entitled to a reduced profit tax base for the amounts invested after the expiration of the 10-year period.

Free zone users shall be exempted from paying participations (contributions), taxes and other duties pertaining to use of land for construction, connection to the water supply, sewerage, heating, gas and power supply networks.

Free zone land may be leased to foreign investors for a period of fifty (50) years, with a possibility to extend the term to another twenty-five (25) years, pursuant to the law.

The developers of the free zone shall have the full right to sublet or rent parts of the free zones or structures thereon or rights thereof to the users.%26quot;

Question: Are the economic activities within the free zone restricted?

Answer: Every type of economic activity is allowed EXCEPT the activities explicitly forbidden by the law. These include: the trading of decayed, rotten, expired or infected goods or waste material detrimental to the environment or not fit for human or animal consumption; radioactive materials except those which are needed for industrial, medical and scientific research purposes under a valid license from the competent authorities; drugs, chemicals and biological materials and chemical and biochemical derivatives with the exception of those used in industrial, manufacturing, medicinal and pharmaceutical preparations, according to certificates issued by the Ministry of Health; arms, munitions, weapons and military explosives; goods or services which originate from countries or firms subject to boycotts, embargoes or blockades imposed by the competent national and international organs and authorities; goods or services that violate public morals, public defence, public safety and the security of the state; goods or services that violate the domestic laws and international treaties pertaining to intellectual and commercial property; practices, services and activities in contravention or violation of treaties, laws, regulations and directives regarding the protection of the environment in Macedonia.

Free zone users may apply standards, technical and quality norms of the destination country when manufacturing goods in the free zone intended for export.

Free zone users may set prices for their goods and services and will not be subject to laws and regulations pertaining to prices in the Republic of Macedonia.

Question: Will workers' rights be protected in such an environment?

Answer: Workers' rights are protected only by a good economy. In Macedonia, we have a lot of theoretical workers' rights. But the right to work is violated by mass unemployment and by gigantic wage and pension arrears. All the employers in the free zone shall sign a collective agreement with their employees. The collective agreement will oblige the employers and the employees to settle labour dispute through arbitration or mediation. The Directorate shall set up a labour relations committee to provide the employers and the employees with an arbitration and mediation mechanism.

Question: Thank you very much. Let's hope that free zones will fulfil all the expectations …

Answer: I will settle for half the expectations …

Thank you.